Hello again, friends. I hope you’re
all enjoying some college football on this fine Saturday. It’s time again for
quick picks, although they won’t have to be quite as quick as last week’s
rundown. And because we’re actually doing this the day before the games kick
off instead of the hour, we can include fantasy advice with our predictions for
each game! Happy Birthday!
Exciting news! Here at the Redding
Report, we’ve developed a new statistic to introduce into the sports universe.
It’s called the GAD metric and is applied to determine how important or
irrelevant a particular game is. The GAD (or Give A Damn) metric incorporates
factors such as the date, time, competing teams, history of those teams, talent
gap, and what is at stake for each game to help you decided whether or not you
should, well, give a damn. By using the GAD metric, we’re hoping to save you
from rushing home on Thursday night, only to see the Giants and Redskins play
out a 10-3 stinker that makes you want to gouge your eyes out. The GAD rating
of each game will be included in Quick Picks starting this week.
Before we get to all of that exciting
stuff, however, let’s get serious. It’s been a very tough week for the NFL with
the Ray Rice situation, the allegations placed on commissioner Goodell
thereafter, and now the child abuse charges coming against Vikings superstar
Adrian Peterson. The problem with all of this is social media. Social media has
turned the Average Joe into judge and jury of situations far more complex and
critical than they understand. Yes, Ray Rice hit his wife and we shouldn’t
accept that as permissible for anyone, but the screaming masses crying out for
Rice’s blood are what led to his indefinite suspension from the NFL. When
thousands of “HOW COULD THIS MAN BE ALLOWED TO PLAY IN THE NFL?!” tweets,
calls, and emails flood the league office, fear of protests and boycotts force
their hand. The fact of the matter is that a one-time mistake that Ray Rice
made in a heated moment does not warrant his livelihood being snatched away,
his image being thrown through a wood chipper, and his name being forever
synonymous with scandal.
In Adrian Peterson’s case, the same
story plays out. When an average NFL fan sees everyone else commenting on
Peterson’s allegations and claiming that he’s an unfit father/role model for
any kid, their sheep mentality tells them that they must take the same stance.
And not only must they believe the same thing as all those other people, they
need to believe it LOUDLY. Truthfully, there are millions of people who were
frequently told to “go outside and get a switch” when being disciplined by
their parents as kids. It’s nothing new, it’s not unusually cruel, and tomorrow
it’s not going to matter. My two siblings and I were hit with switches, among
other objects, when were younger too. And now we’re normal people who learn
from our mistakes. If the NFL thinks they can have a say in how every facet of
every player’s life should look, they have a long and futile battle ahead of
them.
Heavy stuff, I know, but it’s the
truth. Are you guys as ready as I am to
see these games tomorrow? It’s been a very, very long week and I want to do
nothing more than consume some good ol’ football on my dad’s couch and feel
like all is right in the world. We went 7-9 with our picks last week, but
expect immediate improvement. We just had to feel out the league, ya know? Let’s
do this! (Remember that times listed with games are based my San Diego clock)
Patriots at Vikings, Sunday 10:00 am
GAD Rating: 5.7- This should be a
routine win for the Patriots, especially with AP being deactivated, but should
you notice an unusually close score in those updates at the bottom of your
screen then go ahead and pay attention. An 0-2 start for New England would
carry plenty of intrigue.
Fantasy Outlook: If you’re playing in
a PPR league, Julian Edelman is always good for 8-10 catches and Josh McDaniels
will continue to get Shane Vereen the ball any way he can. Minnesota will most
likely be force-feeding Cordarelle Patterson the ball in the running and
passing game in order to compensate for Peterson’s absence.
Winner: An angry Patriots team with
something to prove and the talent to back it up should prove overmatched
against the Vikings
Dolphins at Bills, Sunday 10:00 am
GAD Rating: 7.3- This may not be a
necessarily marquee matchup, but it could turn into the surprise nail-biter of
Sunday morning. These teams look to be evenly matched with adequate defenses
and offenses with explosive potential. It could also turn into a 6-3 yawn-fest,
though.
Fantasy Outlook: Miami’s receivers
will likely be largely held in check by Buffalo’s formidable secondary led by
cornerback Stephon Gilmore. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller should have nice outings
against a relatively weak Dolphins linebacker corps.
Winner: The Bills stout defense is
just stingy enough to hold the Dolphins at crucial points in this one
Jaguars at Redskins, Sunday 10:00 am
GAD Rating: 3.0- Nobody outside of
Jacksonville or Washington should care about this game. And even then I wouldn’t
tune into this matchup between 2 of the worst 3 teams in the league.
Fantasy Outlook: Washington’s defense
isn’t horrible; it did take Houston a good while to start scoring last week, so
the Jaguars’ “skill” players may not be very productive. However, Freddy Morris
could (and should) have at least 100 yards.
Winner: I should probably be picking
the Redskins here, but I’m going to go with Jacksonville. Even if they won’t
start Blake Bortles.
Cowboys at Titans, Sunday 10:00 am
GAD Rating: 6.4- Dallas’ offense is
trying to capitalize on the momentum it finally found late in the game last
week while Tennessee’s defense looked surprisingly dominant against the Chiefs.
Flip over to this game if Romo and The Boys can get the sparks flying early.
Fantasy Outlook: Dallas’
less-than-stellar defense will give receivers Justin Hunter and Kendall Wright
the opportunity to shine if Jake Locker can find them downfield. If Romo
struggles early on, Dallas will feed Demarco Murray to control the pace of the
game and give the passing game a chance to get on the same page.
Winner: Romo’s big arm and bigger
receivers should eventually (if not immediately) overwhelm this Titans defense
Cardinals at That Other Team in New Jersey, Sunday 10:00 am
GAD Rating: 2.5- I would have given
this game a 0, but there should probably plenty of Eli Manning Face in this
game, which we can all appreciate.
Fantasy Outlook: San Diego’s Ryan
Mathews gained mostly short yardage until late into the game, and it will
likely be the same story for Rashard Jennings against a solid Cardinals run
defense. Larry Fitzgerald, Michael Floyd, and Andre Ellington, however, should
all be starting for your team.
Winner: Arizona should have no
problems placing another game in the win column on Sunday
Saints at Browns, Sunday 10:00 am
GAD Rating: 4.2- This game won’t be
very interesting. New Orleans needs a win to stay in stride with the Falcons
and Cleveland’s offense can’t compete with Drew Brees’ high-flying unit.
Fantasy Outlook: The Browns do boast
a brick wall of a run defense, so don’t depend on Mark Ingram or Pierre Thomas
for RB1 production. Jimmy Graham and Brandin Cooks should be just fine, and
Brian Hoyer will likely be looking for Jordan Cameron underneath quite often.
Winner: It’s almost impossible for
the Saints to lose this game
Falcons at Bengals, Sunday 10:00 am
GAD Rating: 8.3- With the playmaking
receivers that will be on the field in this game, it has the potential to
become a barn-burner very quickly
Fantasy Outlook: Cincinnati doesn’t
have the receiving firepower that Atlanta features, so look for them to
supplement by getting the ball to Gio Bernard early and often. The Bengal’s
defense should limit, but not shut down, Matt Ryan all morning.
Winner: With the advantage of playing
in their home stadium, I’m going to give this one to the Bengals
Lions at Panthers, Sunday 10:00 am
GAD Rating: 9.3- With Cam Newton
making his 2014 debut, this game should have everything you want to see on
Sunday morning: a duel between talented quarterbacks, exciting gash plays on
the ground, and inexplicable catches from Calvin Johnson
Fantasy Outlook: Carolina’s secondary
was weakened in the offseason so Golden Tate should have plenty of room to run
while the defense focuses on Johnson. The Panther’s running back tandem of
Stewart and Williams should be able to find consistent success.
Winner: In a close contest, I say the
Lions win this one by virtue of their superior offense
Rams at Buccaneers, Sunday 1:05 pm
GAD Rating: 5.7- Like San Francisco’s
demolition of Dallas last week, this should be an afternoon snoozer. If you’re
like me and love to see defenses dominate, there is potential here for a game
you’ll love.
Fantasy Outlook: Doug Martin is ready
to improve on his dismal performance from last week. That will happen as long
as his O-line can get him past St. Louis’ defensive line. Tampa’s big receivers
shouldn’t have very much trouble getting open down the field.
Winner: Tampa Bay fixes their mistakes
from week 1 and moves easily past the Rams
Seahawks at Chargers, Sunday 1:05 pm
GAD Rating: 9.8- Not only are the
Seahawks the most exciting team the NFL has to offer, but the Chargers’ ability
to adjust to tough defenses and create space will make you wait until commercial
breaks to refill that bowl of chips.
Fantasy Outlook: Marshawn Lynch’s
beastly 2-touchdown performance against Green Bay should roll right on ahead
against San Diego. Seattle may struggle to get the ball downfield, but Percy
Harvin will still be productive when he touches the ball. A week against the
Seahawks is a sit-week in my fantasy playbook.
Winner: I doubt I’ll pick against Seattle
this entire season
Texans at Raiders, Sunday 1:25 pm
GAD Rating: 4.4- This game will probably
be background noise for an afternoon nap, but don’t write off the must-see
potential of Derek Carr against a weak Texans defense.
Fantasy Outlook: If Oakland can
protect Carr from Watt and Clowney long enough, Rod Streater and James Jones
will find favorable matchups in the secondary. If they can’t…you’ll hear about
it. Arian Foster should have another 100-yard game here.
Winner: Maybe I just have to touch
the stove twice to realize that it’s hot, but I’m picking the Raiders. They
have a chance to put up points if the coaches will open the playbook and allow
Derek Carr to show off his arm.
Jets at Packers, Sunday 1:25 pm
GAD Rating: 6.4- The contest won’t
likely be very close, but Aaron Rodgers is ready to take advantage of a New
Jersey defense that proved to be susceptible to the pass in week 1.
Fantasy Outlook: Jordy Nelson and
Randall Cobb should have their numbers called consistently throughout this game,
and Green Bay will continue to feed Eddie Lacy if he is cleared to play.
Winner: The Packers won’t have a hard
time getting past the Jets to notch their first win of the season
Chiefs at Broncos, 1:25 pm
GAD Rating: 6.5- After an abysmal
showing against the Titans, Kansas City limps into Mile High Stadium with very
little chance of holding the Broncos under 35 points.
Fantasy Outlook: Peyton Manning has
quickly found chemistry with Emmanuel Sanders while Wes Welker serves his
suspension, so don’t be afraid to start him. All of Denver’s receivers should
get plenty of opportunities.
Winner: Kansas City may split this
series when the Broncos travel to Arrowhead, but for now Denver wins
Bears at 49ers, Sunday 1:25 pm
GAD Rating: 10.0- If Chicago’s
offense can get off to a good start; this could be the most exciting battle of
the week. Should they make mistakes early on, San Francisco’s defense will
capitalize and never let up.
Fantasy Outlook: The 9ers simply don’t
have the secondary to stop Chicago’s offense, but safety Eric Reid gives them
an advantage. Between Reid and the disciplined linebacker corps, it should be
rough goings for Martellus Bennett and Matt Forte all afternoon.
Winner: Eager to get back on track
after a surprising loss to the Bills last week, I believe the Bears will find a
way to deflate the 49er faithful’s bright spirits
Eagles at Colts, Sunday 5:30 pm
GAD Rating: 9.3- This should be an
offensive affair for all to enjoy, both teams feature potent offenses and
secondaries that aren’t necessarily locking the field down.
Fantasy Outlook: Andrew Luck over
Nick Foles
Winner: Nick Foles may not throw
seven touchdowns, but the stronger ground attack will give Philadelphia the
ability to control the game’s tempo. Which they will most likely turn to 100mph
on their way to a second win this season.
You can count on these picks, I swear!
Now go watch the Florida-Kentucky game for me, I have to work a closing shift
at my job tonight and won’t see a single play. Until next time!
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