Divisional Analysis: NFC North

The AFC North may be the AFC’s best division, and their NFC counterparts just might be the most competitive in their conference. In recent history the Packers have dominated this division, but the gap is a lot smaller than you think. In 2011, the Bears almost supplanted Green Bay in the NFC Championship. Just last season, the Vikings bested the Packers in week 17, earning a playoff berth, even though they couldn’t repeat that feat the very next week. As for the Lions, well, they have a love/hate relationship with the playoffs. Bottom line here is that Green Bay may be the only team in this division not playing better than they were in 2012. Let me show you.

First, let’s have a look at Green Bay. They’ve been the power here for a few years, but a case can be made that their throne is crumbling. Exhibit A: Greg Jennings. Green Bay’s primary playmaker departed in free agency this season, and on top of that, defected to Minnesota. Not only do the Packers have to replace his production, they’ll have to figure out how to stop him too. Now, James Jones did have 14 touchdowns last season, but will his production change without Jennings and Driver drawing coverage? Green Bay isn’t much of a defensive, power-running team, but their second-round draft pick was running back Eddie Lacy, so it looks like they want to add some balance to this squad. Look out for Lacy in training camp, as he’ll be trying to beat out James Starks for the top job.

Now, about that team Greg Jennings signed with? They’re not looking too bad for 2013 either. Besides snagging Jennings from the rival Packers, Minnesota traded with the Patriots to move up in the draft and draft Cordarelle Patterson from Tennessee, who looks like he’ll be able to contribute immediately in the receiver department. Christian Ponder is no Trent Dilfer, but he still needs all the help he can get. If Ponder can develop a more potent passing game, defenders will be forced out of the box and Wolverine/Superman/Adrian Peterson may rush for 3,000 yards. The defense should also be better as ex-Packer Desmond Bishop has also defected and safety Harrison Smith is always improving. Bishop will have to battle with incumbent starter Erin Henderson in training camp, which should bring out the best in both players. Sounds like a win-win for the Vikes. It will be tough to replace the skill and leadership of veteran corner Michael Jenkins though, and they may miss the playoffs because…

The Detroit Lions look like a team ready to return to the postseason. The thing about being bad (horrible) for a long time is that wisdom in those situations can help you in the long-run. Case in point, Detroit used all those high draft picks on some pretty good players. You know, like Matthew Stafford, Calvin Johnson, Ndamukong Suh, and Nick Fairley. Stafford & Johnson are already one of the league’s best connections, and Suh & Fairley have the chance to dominate in 2013. On top of that, Detroit’s running back woes seem to be over now that they’ve signed Reggie Bush, who put together two good seasons in Miami and can be very productive and take some of the pressure off of Stafford’s shoulders, who threw the ball 727 times in 2012 (an NFL record).  The Lions will be looking for a complement to Megatron in camp, and it appears that Ryan Broyles will emerge as that no.2 receiver.

Of course, the power shift in this division is still dependent on the Chicago Bears. Though they’ve been inconsistent and unbalanced (heavily unbalance in the favor of the defense), the Bears have the ability to play well and possibly make a playoff run. Chicago is hoping that their moves to improve the offensive line will pay off, which will give Jay Cutler more time to throw and help Matt Forte in the running game. However, defense has always been Chicago’s strong suit, and that doesn’t seem to be changing in 2013. The team will miss Brian Urlacher, but in recent seasons his impact was diminishing anyway. Second-round draft pick Jon Bostic will begin his attempt to replace Urlacher (not to mention win a starting job) when training camp opens up (and he will because he’s a Gator, obviously). A new coach in Marc Trestman adds a whole new level of uncertainty, though. The Bears may not be riding as high as the Blackhawks when the season ends, but Jay Cutler’s scowl might even disappear for a whole day.

Green Bay’s dethroning may still be in the development stages, so don’t be surprised to see the Packers win this division. However, the North should be close this year, and I don’t see any teams getting swept. And hey, no matter what happens, at least we get to witness Adrian Peterson before he goes back to Krypton.